In the picturesque skies of Paris, a remarkable sight unfolds as a bug-like electric aircraft gracefully soars, offering its passenger breathtaking views of iconic landmarks like the Eiffel Tower and the city’s distinctive zinc-grey rooftops. The electric craft operates silently, weaving through the congested traffic below. This spectacle could mark a significant milestone in aviation history.
After years of ambitious yet often skeptical discussions about a future filled with eco-friendly electric taxis soaring through the skies, the aviation industry is on the verge of turning that vision into reality. The Paris region, seizing the opportunity to shine on the global stage, is making preparations to introduce a fleet of electric flying taxis, serving multiple routes during the upcoming 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games. However, it’s worth noting that if Chinese aviation regulators grant approval to a pilotless taxi currently being developed there for two passengers, they may beat Paris to the punch. Nevertheless, should European regulators give their consent, Volocopter, a German company, could become the first to commercially operate flying taxis.
Volocopter’s CEO, Dirk Hoke, who previously held a prominent position at aerospace leader Airbus, has a remarkable vision for his desired inaugural passenger in Paris: none other than French President Emmanuel Macron.
During his appearance at the Paris Air Show this week, Hoke expressed his enthusiasm, hoping to have President Macron on board as a VVIP passenger. The prospect of such an esteemed figure experiencing the electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft, commonly known as eVTOLs, would be truly extraordinary.
Hoke shared that President Macron has demonstrated a belief in the potential of urban air mobility innovation. Having the president fly in a Volocopter would serve as a significant symbol for Europe, showcasing the region’s commitment to embracing cutting-edge advancements in aviation.
Regardless of whether Macron joins the first flights or not, it is important to recognize that the nascent industry of flying taxis has a long way to go before it can outperform traditional ground transportation.
The current limitations of battery technology impose restrictions on both the range and passenger capacity of eVTOLs. As a result, initial flights are likely to be short in distance and relatively expensive.
While the idea of bypassing traffic by soaring above it is appealing, it hinges on advancements in airspace management. In the next decade, eVTOL manufacturers aspire to deploy fleets in cities and on specialized routes catering to luxury passengers, such as the French Riviera. However, for this vision to become a reality, significant technological advancements are necessary to ensure that flying taxis can safely navigate the skies without colliding with each other or other aircraft, including the growing number of drones.
In summary, while the industry is making progress, there are substantial challenges to overcome before flying taxis can become a practical and widespread mode of transportation.
To overcome the challenges and make progress in the flying taxi industry, companies like Archer Aviation Inc. plan to initially operate on existing helicopter routes and gradually expand their services using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning. Billy Nolen, a former acting head of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), emphasized the importance of scaling up while ensuring airspace safety through technological advancements.
Archer Aviation aims to commence operations between downtown Manhattan and Newark’s Liberty Airport by 2025. This route, typically taking an hour by train or conventional taxi, could be covered in less than 10 minutes by Archer’s sleek, electric 4-passenger prototype.
Nolen, who previously worked at the FAA, mentioned that the agency had already collaborated with NASA to develop technology for safely managing the increased presence of flying taxis. Similar to Paris utilizing the Olympic Games to test flying taxis, Nolen highlighted the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics as another milestone for the industry. The goal is to demonstrate that flying taxis can transport passengers safely, efficiently, and at an affordable cost.
Nolen predicts that by 2028, there could be hundreds, if not thousands, of electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOLs) in operation. This projection reflects the industry’s ambition to rapidly expand and establish a significant presence in the coming years.
While the industry envisions a revolutionary era for eVTOLs, some aviation analysts remain skeptical about the feasibility of these aircraft becoming affordable, ubiquitous, and convenient alternatives to ride-hailing services in the near future. There are concerns that funding for eVTOL developers may dry up before they can bring their prototypes to the market.
According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the eVTOL industry could be worth $1 trillion by 2040 and $9 trillion by 2050, driven by advancements in battery and propulsion technology. However, most of this growth is expected to occur after 2035 due to the challenges of obtaining certification from regulators in the United States and Europe.
Richard Aboulafia of AeroDynamic Advisory, an aerospace consultancy, expresses doubts about the feasibility of mass urban transit using flying taxis, considering the high cost of the vehicles and limited access for the general public. He highlights that helicopter rides already exist for those who can afford them.
Nonetheless, the prospect of electric taxis taking flight during the Olympics in Paris has the potential to surprise and delight. Volocopter, among others, hopes that this experience will capture the public’s imagination and inspire more people to try flying taxis, similar to how ride-hailing apps and e-scooters gained popularity over time.
Volocopter’s CEO, Dirk Hoke, believes that this introduction of flying taxis will lead to a transformative experience, and in hindsight, people will recognize it as the beginning of the next revolution.
